By Ron Devoe

The “F” word has become prevalent in more conversational circles and its multiple uses leave little doubt as to its meaning. I believe that within our industry we have a better command of the King’s English and a better sense of propriety than to speak that “F” word continuously. I would offer an “F” word that is gaining greater usage, while evoking a similar negative reaction – that “F” word is FORECASTING.

Forecasting had its roots in meteorology, where weathermen raised their fingers in the air to predict weather patterns. The accuracy of these predictions has been a source of humor for some time. Now, our industry has fully embraced Forecasting as a necessary tool for business success. While I fully understand the need for manufacturers to produce products in the correct amount for timely delivery, Forecasting methods have caused more pain than relief.

As an aged veteran of this industry and an independent manufacturer’s representative, I have watched and endured the rise of the “F” word. In the ‘80s and early ‘90s, I would meet with my manufacturers to discuss our dealer network with its strengths and possibilities, the market climate and the manufacturer’s place relative to product need and competition. From this discussion, combining cumulative national data and sticking our fingers in the air, I, the rep, and the manufacturers determined what the national sales goals could and should be and then what percentage my territory should represent.

In recent years, reps have been summoned into dark rooms with a single light shining on their faces as one or two sales managers across the table forced reps into agreeing to numbers that were satisfactory to the manufacturer. The result of each of these meetings was to establish “the Plan” which soon became addressed as “my Plan.” This made for ongoing conversations related to where I was with “my Plan,” or I how I needed to step up to complete “my Plan.” This ordeal is affectionately known as a sales meeting. I am happy that I retired prior to the introduction of high voltage and/or water boarding in these meetings.

Opportunity reporting became more prevalent, but woe unto those who mentioned a pending sale that exists somewhere out in the future. While these projects might be a media retrieval system for an un-built school, or a projection system for a church that is trying to raise the money, the knowledge that something is coming is too great to ignore. Reps are asked to report constantly on opportunities and if one is actually reported, then a monthly, weekly or every other nano-second update is required. To help bring these opportunities, manufacturers sometimes use motivational strategies such as threats, direct end-user contact and ransoming children to help direct the opportunity.

So now, we have Forecasting. Unfortunately, my role as rep diminished somewhat as I was required to make the Forecasting calls to my dealer network. While I had always felt welcome in dealer’s offices and enjoyed a sense of trust, I found that the Forecasting call resulted in unsecured appointments, unanswered emails or unreturned voice mails.

The weatherman, with his missed forecast, is rarely shot at dawn even though decisions on events, travel, planting, etc., are based on the accuracy of the weather Forecast. The rep is rarely granted such clemency. While many in this industry hate the “F”orecasting word, most hate the smell of “BO” (Back Order) even more. To avoid costly BO’s we have to have Forecasting. It just seems as though there would be an F’ing better way to do it.

Ron began working in the AV Industry in 1975, when he worked for dealerships in Texas. In 1984, he founded TOTAL Marketing, an independent manufacturer’s representative firm calling on dealers in Texas, Okla., Ark. and La. Later Ron founded TM West and TM Distributing. In 2010, Ron retired from “active duty” by selling the TOTAL companies to his daughter, Darcy Harrell, who was active in the business for years. Ron maintains a consultant position with TOTAL, while also working for IPRO as the associate director for commercial AV reps and as a volunteer for SCORE