Simply stated, mid-September 2021.
Decimated by COVID-19, most that are still standing have turned to virtual events. But, in those cases, you are trading dollars for dimes. Live events will not make any sort of significant recovery in 2021, I am sad to say. I miss them as much as anyone. But until we have the great majority of the population vaccinated, likely by August 2021, we will see a shuttering of most live events. However, by October, I project we will have more than 50% of our planned events back on track, and I am optimistic we will see one another this fall! The revenue in live events will be up 20-25% in 2021, but remember, that is over a dead 2020. It’s not a large increase, even though it’s a double-digit number.
To back this projection up, just today, the U.S. government, via President Joe Biden, said that over 200 million Americans will be vaccinated by the end of August. The exceptions will be kids — who aren’t allowed to take the vaccine yet — and those concerned about the lack of research with regards to the effects on the reproductive system.
Although Germany feels like it could take as long as four years to vaccinate everyone, the expectation is that they will cross 50% of the population by mid-July. Israel will be done with nearly its entire population by May. The U.K., the first country in the world to have started vaccinations, expects everyone to have been vaccinated — with at least one shot, pushing the efficacy to over 65% — by September. Australia expects to have herd immunity by October.
Granted, this list doesn’t represent every country, but it’s a good overview of how vaccinations are proceeding.
Thus, I am confident we will see trade shows return in full swing by mid-September (albeit with low attendance), while concerts and other live events will roll out by October. Again, this will be with limited admission. But you’ve gotta start somewhere!
Speaking of starting somewhere, why not start by reading the predictions in my Kayye’s Krystal Ball 2021 series? Find the story here.