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How the 2025 Political Landscape Could Reshape AV and IT Industry Trends

2025 microchip

Often at the start of a new year, I give thought to what the next year will bring. How will technology affect our work? What incredible new things will pop up in the consumer world that will soon be something we have to deal with in an enterprise environment?

This year, 2025, brings a different start than most years. It is impossible not to consider the political changes within the United States and not wonder how those will affect what we do day to day. The Trump administration has made bold claims about policies that have the chance to impact the AV and IT world a great deal. While I will do my best not to make political judgments on any of these changes, I will think about how a few of them may have a significant impact on our work.

Work From Home

One significant policy change that the incoming administration has announced is requiring that all federal workers return full time to the office, effectively ending any work-from-home arrangements. Finding exact numbers about how many federal workers are in person versus remote is difficult. In December, Senator Joni Ernst published a report indicating that only 3% of the federal workforce shows up in person every day, and 33% are remote full time. If those numbers are even close to true, requiring them all to return to the office will have a significant impact. Conference rooms for meetings and presentations will again be needed, and money will be re-invested in these spaces after they have been used less for several years. Digital signage could take a bump in these locations as we see more and more people showing up to buildings. Meanwhile, home office technology setups may take a hit as people are no longer allowed to work in their homes. Integrators with offices in the Virginia and Washington, D.C., area may be interested in being sure they are fully staffed to support this possible change in demand for their services. Paying attention to the success of this new policy will help us understand how much of a driver this will be for the business sector. One theory of this policy is that it will make people voluntarily leave their jobs, therefore reducing overall staffing, without having to lay people off. Some businesses have also been suspected of calling people back to the office with this as a hidden agenda. Could this policy be pointed at by other executives, and what drives a majority of knowledge workers back into the office?

Tariffs

A second major implication is going to what happens with tariffs. The new administration has threatened tariffs on China and Mexico, both major trading partners in the technology and fabrication fields. A significant tariff on goods from China, in particular, would result in immediate price increases for a vast majority of the goods we buy in our industry. As we learned from the supply issues during 2020-22, the vast majority of chips come from China. Even if the actual hardware is assembled in the United States, the individual parts come from other countries. Regardless of whether these policies are driving other desirable outcomes, tariffs will raise prices of technology equipment. This will be particularly difficult for designers and engineers who are spec’ing equipment for 12-18 months out. Contracts will have to require an understanding that equipment costs may have to increase based on tariffs existing at the time of purchase. It also means that if you have a current project that is ready to move forward, you may want to make the spend today. Additionally, the current discussions about the Panama Canal and Greenland could have significant effects (both positive and negative) on availability and costs of equipment. A dispute that caused the Panama Canal to shut down for some period would be extremely costly, while an agreement for American bound ships to have lower rates could decrease costs. With the receding of ice in the northern hemisphere, the ability to control shipping lanes around Greenland could be an advantage for American companies.

The new administration seems to be involving the tech industry a significant amount in its policy making, which could result in a benefit to our industry. CEOs of some of the major tech players, such as Apple, Google and Amazon, have been around the transition team on a regular basis. JD Vance has been very involved in Silicon Valley and private equity for years. Again — it is hard to say what this means. One could develop scenarios in which this is good for our industry and those in which it is bad. But this is absolutely an area which is worth watching as we consider

The next several months will help us better understand how much is going to change. New administrations often make bold promises meant as negotiating tactics and election help. Time will inform us of what changes will actually take place and the effect they will have on our industry. I don’t remember in the past 20 years of being in the business a time when a presidential transition held such potential change for our industry.

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